Imithelela Eyinhloko Yemithethonqubo Yokuthunyelwa Kwensimbi Entsha Emakethe Yensimbi Yomhlaba Wonke (2026)
I. Iziphetho Eziyinhloko
Ukuqaliswa kweShayina kokuphathwa kwelayisense yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe imikhiqizo yensimbi engaba ngu-300 (kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, 2026), kanye nentela yekhabhoni ye-CBAM ye-EU kanye nokuvikelwa kokuhweba komhlaba wonke, kuzoholela ekunciphiseni kwesikhashana kwenani lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe laseShayina, ushintsho esikhungweni sentengo, ukwakheka kabusha kwesakhiwo sokulethwa komhlaba kanye nomehluko wamanani wesifunda, ukwanda kwesilinganiso semikhiqizo yensimbi enenani eliphezulu/ehambisanayo, kanye nokulungiswa okusheshayo kwamandla okukhiqiza angaphandle kanye nokugeleza kokuhweba.
II. Imithelela Eqondile: Ukunikezwa, Amanani, kanye Nokugeleza Kwezohwebo
1. Uhlangothi Lokuphakelwa: Ukuncipha Kwezinto Ezithunyelwa Ngaphandle E-China kanye Nokwehla Kwejubane
Umthamo Wokuthumela Ngaphandle: Ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi eChina ngo-2026 kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngo-17% unyaka nonyaka kuye cishe ku-0.97 billion tons, kanye nokwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-**8.1%** okubonwe ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari; ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo enenani eliphansi (ama-billets, insimbi ejwayelekile) kunqunyelwe kakhulu.
Imingcele Yokuthobela Umthetho: Amalayisense + ukulandelelwa kwekhwalithi + ukukhishwa kwezinga kuzosusa abathengisi abancane nabaphakathi kanye nama-oda angalandeli imithetho, ngenkathi kwandisa isabelo semakethe sezinkampani ezihamba phambili.
1. **Umphumela Wesikhathi:** Isikhathi sesicelo siyizinsuku zokusebenza ezi-3-5, okuholela ekubambezelekeni kwesikhashana ekukhululweni kwentela kanye nokugcwaliswa kwenkontileka, futhi ama-oda agxile ezinkampanini ezithobela imithetho.
2. **Uhlangothi Lwentengo:** Amanani ensimbi yomhlaba wonke ayakhuphuka, kanti umehluko wamanani wesifunda uyancipha.
Amanani okuthumela kwamanye amazwe eShayina ayakhuphuka: Ukwanda kwezindleko zokuthobela imithetho kanye nokwehla kwentengo ephansi yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ngokungahlelekile kuholele ekubuyeni kwentengo ejwayelekile yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe yemikhiqizo yensimbi ejwayelekile, okusekela kakhulu i-Asia, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye neLatin America.
Umehluko wamanani wesifunda uyancipha: Amanani aseShayina ayahlangana nabancintisana nabo njengeJapan, iSouth Korea, neNdiya, okwenza kube ngcono inzuzo yamanani ngenkathi kusagcinwa amanye.
**Ukwengezwa Kwezindleko:** Ngokusetshenziswa ngokugcwele kwe-CBAM ye-EU, izindleko zekhabhoni ngethani lensimbi yezinkampani zensimbi ezisebenza isikhathi eside zikhuphuke cishe ngama-€45, okwenza buthaka kakhulu ukuncintisana kokuthunyelwa kwensimbi okungeyona eluhlaza.
3. **Ukugeleza Kwezohwebo:** Ama-oda ashintshela kumthamo ohlukile kanye nezindlela ezihambisanayo.
I-Belt and Road Initiative, i-ASEAN, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye neLatin America kusalokhu kuyizindawo eziyinhloko, kodwa inani lama-oda kanye nokuvama kwawo kuyathuthuka, kanti inani elikhulu lama-oda anobungozi obuphansi, athobela imithetho kakhulu.
**Amandla Ahlukile:** Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okwandisiwe eNdiya, eTurkey, e-ASEAN, naseMpumalanga Yurophu kuphazamisa isidingo esiphansi nesiphakathi, okuholela ekwandeni kokunikezwa kwezinye izindawo kodwa amanani enyuka ngokufanele.
Imikhiqizo yekhwalithi ephezulu: Insimbi ekhethekile, insimbi enamandla aphezulu, kanye nensimbi kagesi zibekwe phambili ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nesilinganiso. Ukunikezwa komhlaba wonke kwemikhiqizo yekhwalithi ephezulu kuncane, okuholela emananini aqinile.
III. Imikhuba Yesikhathi Esimaphakathi Neside: Ukuthuthukiswa Nokuhlela Kabusha Kwesakhiwo
Ukuthuthukiswa Kwesakhiwo Sokuthumela Ngaphandle: Ingxenye yemikhiqizo enenani eliphansi iyancipha, lapho amapuleti aphezulu, insimbi ekhethekile, kanye nensimbi eluhlaza kuba yizinto eziyinhloko. Ukuhweba kuyashintsha kusuka “ekuncishisweni kwentengo okuqhutshwa yivolumu” kuya ekukhuleni okuqhutshwa yikhwalithi kanye nokuhambisana nomthetho.
Ukwakhiwa Kabusha Kwesimo Sokuncintisana Somhlaba Wonke: Izithiyo zokuhweba ziya ngokuya zijwayelekile. Imikhawulo emithathu yezinyathelo ze-CBAM + amalayisense + ukulwa nokulahla izimpahla ishintsha ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi eShayina kusuka "enzuzweni enkulu" kuya enzuzweni ephelele yobuchwepheshe + izindleko + ukuthobela imithetho.
Amandla Nokubambisana Kwamanye Amazwe Okusheshisiwe: Izinkampani ezihamba phambili zisungula imisebenzi yokuncibilikisa/yokucubungula kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuncishiswe ukuncika ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe futhi kuthuthukiswe amakhono okuhambisa kanye nokuhambisana nekhabhoni.
IV. Izingozi Eziyinhloko Nezimpawu
Izingozi Zesikhathi Esifushane: Ukwehla kwama-oda okuthumela kwamanye amazwe, ukwanda kwezindleko zokuthobela imithetho (cishe ama-RMB angu-50-100 ngokuthunyelwa ngakunye), kanye nokwanda kwezindleko eziphelele ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kanye nokuphazamiseka kwezepolitiki.
Izimpawu Ezinhle: I-oda elithuthukisiwe lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, umjikelezo omuhle wamanani, kanye namandla akhuphukile okuxoxisana ngemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu kunciphisa ingcindezi evela ezingxabanweni zokuhweba zamazwe ngamazwe.
V. Isifinyezo Ingqikithi yemithethonqubo emisha ukulawula inani eliphelele, ukwenza ngcono isakhiwo, nokuqinisa ukuthobela imithetho. Esikhathini esifushane, kuzoholela ekunciphiseni ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eChina, ukwenyuka kwamanani omhlaba, kanye nokulinganisela kabusha ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo. Esikhathini esimaphakathi neside, kuzokhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokuhweba ngensimbi yomhlaba wonke kube nenani eliphezulu elengeziwe, i-carbon ephansi, kanye nokuthobela imithetho, futhi kusheshiswe ukwakheka kwamandla okukhiqiza ahlukile kanye nokwahlukaniswa kwemisebenzi yesifunda.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-13-2026